Thought is the labor of good poker. Objectivity and steady concentration are needed to think properly. Thinking requires discipline. Analytical thinking is necessary to understand and predict the actions of opponents. Objective thinking is necessary to plan the proper action.

The good player continually thinks about poker during the game. He looks at his cards quickly to allow maximum time for observation and thought. He never wastes precious time by slowly looking at or squeezing open his cards. When involved in a hand, his thoughts concentrate on strategy. The good player gains a major advantage over other players by thinking ahead and forming several strategic plans based on anticipated hands. When an anticipated hand develops, he can make quicker and more accurate playing decisions.

When not involved in a hand, the good player studies the game, gathers data, and plans future strategy. Between hands, he analyzes the action of each concluded hand.

Intensive thought and concentration also help to overcome nervousness, which even a good player may experience when playing in a strange, an unfriendly, or a high-stake game.

Since thinking is the labor of poker, maximum thinking effort should yield maximum returns. How much is this effort worth in dollars? When a player wins an average of $40 per game, his winning rate is equivalent to a job paying $15,200 a year.¹⁴ Average winnings of $150 per game is equivalent to a $57,000 per year job.

_______________________
^{14 This and the following figures calculated for a five-hour weekly game . . . and 1900 hours of actual work per year (estimated from data in the U. S. Government Bulletin, Employment, Earnings and Monthly Report on the Labor Force. vol. 12, no. 10).}

Compare the effort in poker to the effort required in a job yielding similar earnings. For example, a winning rate of $5 per game is equivalent to a job paying only $1,900 per year; such pay would not be worth the effort needed to play good poker.

Let us see how thinking pays off. John Finn is under the gun in draw poker. He has a four flush in hearts and checks. Next is Sid Bennett, who opens for $25. John check-raises to $50. Sid and Scotty call the raise. Now John draws and immediately looks at his card. He misses his flush. Does he give up? No… by paying attention and thinking, he still has a chance to win that $250 pot. John stays alert. and this is what he sees and hears:

Sid Bennett draws one card, sticks it in the center of his hand, then quickly looks at it. Is he drawing a flush, a straight, or two pair? Probably two pair because when Sid draws one card to the flush or straight he places the draw card at the back end of his hand and then looks at the card very slowly. That, along with his betting pattern (opens, then reluctantly calls a raise), suggests that Sid has two pair.

Ted Fehr flashes a black picture card when dealing Scotty’s draw card. While ruffling the cards through his chubby fingers, Scotty exposes the deuce of hearts. Therefore, if he were going for the flush or straight, he missed it. Scotty slowly squeezes his cards open to look at his new card, then gives a blowing exhale. He usually inhales when he sees a good draw card.

Now John has a good view of the situation. The opener (Sid with two pair) looks weak with respect to the two one-card draw hands behind him… especially after John raised the first-round bet. Knowing that Scotty has a busted hand, John sits in a position of strength, despite his worthless hand. He has the last bet, and the other players respect his hand because of his first-round raise followed by his single-card draw. John has an excellent chance of buying the $250 pot with a bluff.

If Sid and Scotty check and John bets $50, Sid will probably drop his winning hand because he would have to contend with Scotty’s one-card draw as well as John’s one-card draw. If Sid folds, Scotty will then fold his busted hand, leaving John the pot. John figures his chances of a successful bluff under the circumstances are better than 1 to 2. The return for winning the pot would be about 5 to 1. He estimates his investment odds at $250 x 0.3/$0 = 1.5… those are good odds.

What if Sid bets his two pair? Does John fold his hand or does he still bluff by raising back? He would probably fold for the following reasons:

– After already betting $0, Sid would probably call John’s raise—out of pseudo pride if for no other reason.
– Sid’s bet would drive out Scotty, thus eliminating the key player needed to bluff Sid out. John’s chances of a successful bluff would decrease sharply.
– John would have to risk $100 for a $300 pot — 3 to 1 return on his bluff play rather than the 5 to 1 return if Sid does not bet. His investment odds would fall to $450 x 0.1/100 = 0.45… a very unfavorable level.

What actually happens? Well, things turn out better than John hoped. Sid checks. Scotty hesitates and then suddenly bets $50. This is his normal pattern when bluffing—hesitate and then bet fast. Scotty’s obvious bluff attempt makes John’s bluff even easier. He casually raises to $100. Sid and Scotty fold immediately…. John wins a $300 pot with a worthless hand plus a little thinking.

Incidentally, John Finn earns $42,000 per year by playing 400 hours in the Monday night game. This equals $105 per hour, which is equivalent to a job yielding $200,000 per year…. A job paying that much is worth a concentrated thinking effort.